Europe rallies to Ukraine’s side

Europe rallies to Ukraine’s side following the disastrous White House meeting.

After heated discussions between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the US Presidency on the 28th February saw little progress made towards peace, Starmer hosted his own summit in London on the 2nd March. European attendance was also bolstered by the presence of allies beyond the continent, such as Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

This has come at a time when the US defence policy appears to be drastically shifting to a less interventionist stance on Europe, threatening the cohesion of the NATO alliance especially where funding is concerned. Europe is certainly beginning to adjust to this reality, with the EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen warning that the continent should “prepare for the worst”. There is little doubt that this entails additional spending on defence for many European NATO countries.

Still, peace may not be achieved without US contribution.

The crux of the event was intended to reaffirm support for Ukraine, for which peace, whilst along the road, still seems a distant destination. Starmer, speaking after the event to a news conference, unveiled that the UK was now providing $1.6 billion of funding for air defence missiles, as well as revealing the new four steps towards Ukrainian peace that the summit had agreed upon.They are as follows:

• To keep military aid flowing into Ukraine while the war is ongoing, and increase economic pressure on Russia

• Any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and Ukraine must be at the table for any peace talks

• In the event of a peace deal, European leaders will aim to deter any future invasion by Russia into Ukraine

• There would be a "coalition of the willing" to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace in the country

Notably, mention of the US is absent from all of these.

Also discussed, more closely between Starmer, Zelenskyy and French President Macron, was the proposition of a “one-month peace”, which would entail a cessation of hostilities “in the air, at sea”. This would presumably develop the groundwork for further, more lasting peace talks. Interestingly, in the absence of the US, this has also created an ‘inner circle’ around Ukraine by Macron and Starmer. The UK, since Boris Johnson, has been consistent in its support for Ukraine. Macron has had a more transformative approach, having acted as a cautious mediator in striving to maintain communications with the Kremlin through 2022. After losing faith in the ensuing years over burgeoning allegations of Russian war crimes, he has become one of the most outspoken European leaders. His rhetoric is certainly more agitative compared to Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has in the past held more reserve in donating military aid to Ukraine, and recently dubbed Starmer’s proposals of peacekeeper deployment in Ukraine as “inappropriate”.

Despite all these affirmations and resolve to secure Ukrainian peace and security, America will have to be included. The US’ contributions comprise 70% of the entire NATO budget, not counting the enormous soft power its economy holds sway on the rest of the world. Starmer has been notable for his readiness to put “boots on the ground, and planes in the air” yet insists on agreement with the US - "let me be clear, we agree with Trump on the urgent need for a durable peace. Now we need to deliver together". Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has also warned that the West must “avoid the risk of dividing” in the backdrop of fears that alliances may fray over the US’ ambiguities towards Ukraine and its backdoor negotiations with Russia.

Starmer’s approval ratings have, quite rightly, boosted in light of his international politicking in the last few days. He has succeeded in maintaining commitment to “the special relationship” in his meeting with Donald Trump, and appears to have placed the UK in a strong triumvirate with Zelenskyy and Macron. Indeed, in the photo posted of all those in attendance at the summit posing before their national flags, the three are centrestage, with Starmer looking focused and forthright. 

Success has been made in rallying Europe, and crucial countries beyond (Canada was dubbed a “reliable ally” during the summit), symbolising their increased resolve to step up defence responsibilities. Nevertheless, their collective bargaining power can only be fully realised with America’s backing. Starmer and Macron both know that the Trump Administration’s uncertainty over Ukraine must be overrun.

Uncle Sam now needs to be brought on board.